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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 39

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.38 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP