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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 70

Chicago Bears 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to PIT 27, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-R.McCloud pushed ob at PIT 41 for 14 yards (35-R.Nall).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.13 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP