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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.07 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model