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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 36

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.38 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.85 EP