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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 26 – Chicago Bears 27

What Actually Happened

(:30) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.22 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model