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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
Sunday 2021-10-31 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

WAS
28.8%
DEN
71.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DEN: Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) +0.219 vs Taylor Heinicke (WAS) -0.004 EPA/dropback
  • WAS defense: +0.149 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • DEN offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • DEN on 3 more days rest than WAS

Predicted Final Score

WAS 20
–
DEN 27
Projected margin: DEN by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

WAS

Dyami Brown WR Out Knee
Samuel Cosmi T Out Ankle
Curtis Samuel WR Out Groin
Cornelius Lucas T Questionable Illness
William Jackson CB Questionable Knee
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Knee
Cam Sims WR Questionable Hamstring

DEN

Mike Purcell DT Out Thumb
Von Miller LB Questionable Ankle
Jamar Johnson S Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 10
–
DEN 17

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:31 FG DEN (10:31) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. WAS 0 – DEN 3
  • Q2 05:30 FG WAS (5:30) 12-C.Blewitt 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – DEN 3
  • Q2 01:18 TD DEN (1:18) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 25-M.Gordon for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – DEN 9
  • Q3 00:44 TD WAS (:44) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 1-D.Carter for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – DEN 10
  • Q4 04:31 TD DEN (4:31) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-72-G.Bolles was injured during the play. WAS 10 – DEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 92%

    (9:33) (Shotgun) 71-W.Schweitzer reported in as eligible. 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 83-R.Seals-Jones (59-M.Reed).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 83%

    (13:51) 12-C.Blewitt 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-S.Harris), Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 14 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 83%

    (10:31) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 40%

    (8:12) (Shotgun) 32-J.Patterson up the middle to DEN 45 for 1 yard (29-B.Callahan).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 70%

    (5:30) 12-C.Blewitt 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 13 at the 46
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 40%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN -5. Touchback.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:06) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to WAS 8, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 15 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:09) 5-T.Way punts 66 yards to DEN 31, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Hinton to DEN 46 for 15 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 33%

    (7:08) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to WAS 6, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 16 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 68%

    (11:02) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 80%

    (9:00) 12-C.Blewitt 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-D.Jones), Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 19 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 91%

    (:49) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right intended for 11-C.Sims INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN -2. 31-J.Simmons ran ob at DEN 22 for 24 yards (41-J.McKissic). Penalty on WAS-41-J.McKissic, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on DEN-31-J.Simmons, Taunting, offsetting.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 16 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.82 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 78%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete deep left to 13-A.Humphries.