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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 56

Denver Broncos 10 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to WAS 8, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.85 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model