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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 49

Denver Broncos 10 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to WAS 6, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.07 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model