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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 30

Washington Commanders 10 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete deep left to 13-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.26 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.82 EP