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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 20

Washington Commanders 10 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(:49) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right intended for 11-C.Sims INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN -2. 31-J.Simmons ran ob at DEN 22 for 24 yards (41-J.McKissic). Penalty on WAS-41-J.McKissic, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on DEN-31-J.Simmons, Taunting, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.87 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 20, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.28 EP