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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 27

Denver Broncos 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.16 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model