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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 46

Washington Commanders 3 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN -5. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.19 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP