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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 29

Washington Commanders 10 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 12-C.Blewitt 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-D.Jones), Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.35 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model