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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2021-10-17 · 16:25 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

DAL
66.1%
NE
33.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.189 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.233 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 26
–
NE 21
Projected margin: DAL by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

DAL

Dorance Armstrong DE Out Ankle
Tyron Smith T Questionable Neck
Trevon Diggs CB Questionable Ankle
Ezekiel Elliott RB Questionable Ribs
Randy Gregory DE Questionable Knee
Damontae Kazee S Questionable Hip
Donovan Wilson S Questionable Groin

NE

Shaquille Mason G Out Abdomen
Shaun Wade CB Out Concussion
Nick Folk K Questionable left Knee
Damien Harris RB Questionable Ribs
Justin Herron T Questionable Back
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Ankle
Jalen Mills CB Questionable Hamstring
Ronnie Perkins DE Questionable Ankle
Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 35
–
NE 29

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:27 TD NE (10:27) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 37-D.Harris. 37-D.Harris up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 06:46 TD DAL (6:46) 66-C.McGovern reported in as eligible. 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Jarwin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – NE 7
  • Q1 04:56 TD NE (4:56) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 85-H.Henry for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – NE 13
  • Q2 06:42 FG DAL (6:42) 2-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 10 – NE 14
  • Q3 04:53 TD DAL (4:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – NE 14
  • Q4 13:17 FG DAL (13:17) 2-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 20 – NE 14
  • Q4 06:27 TD NE (6:27) 72-Y.Cajuste reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 38-Stevenson 1st NFL TD DAL 20 – NE 20
  • Q4 02:36 TD DAL (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Diggs at NE 42. 7-T.Diggs for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7-Diggs now has a Int in 6 consecutive games to start the season, ties NFL record (Landry, Russell, Wilburn). DAL 26 – NE 21
  • Q4 02:21 TD NE (2:21) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 84-K.Bourne for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 26 – NE 27
  • Q4 00:24 FG DAL (:24) 2-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. NE-29-J.Bethel was injured during the play. DAL 29 – NE 29
  • Q5 03:59 TD DAL (3:59) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 35 – NE 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (12:04) (No Huddle) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DAL 34 for no gain (54-D.Hightower, 32-D.McCourty). Dallas challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 11:49.)

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 19%

    (2:30) 66-C.McGovern reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott left end pushed ob at 50 for 3 yards (27-J.Jackson).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 11 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (6:42) 2-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:34) 7-J.Bailey punt is BLOCKED by 57-L.Gifford, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by DAL-57-L.Gifford at NE 22. 57-L.Gifford to NE 17 for 5 yards (25-B.Bolden).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (1:32) 66-C.McGovern reported in as eligible. 4-D.Prescott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 66-C.McGovern reported in as eligible. 4-D.Prescott up the middle to NE 1 for no gain (8-J.Bentley). FUMBLES (8-J.Bentley), RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at NE -2. Touchback.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:58) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to DAL 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 1-C.Wilson to DAL 29 for -1 yards (29-J.Bethel).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:32) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to NE 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NE 42 for 23 yards (20-T.Pollard).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 25%

    (9:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to DAL 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 1-C.Wilson.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:09) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to DAL 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 1-C.Wilson to DAL 11 for -1 yards (29-J.Bethel). FUMBLES (29-J.Bethel), and recovers at DAL 12.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 81%

    (13:17) 2-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 69%

    (2:47) 2-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-C.Wilson to DAL 48 for 13 yards (31-J.Jones) [91-D.Wise].

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 73%

    (:24) 2-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. NE-29-J.Bethel was injured during the play.