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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:04) (No Huddle) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DAL 34 for no gain (54-D.Hightower, 32-D.McCourty). Dallas challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 11:49.)

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.88 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 24, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model