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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 65

New England Patriots 14 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 7-J.Bailey punt is BLOCKED by 57-L.Gifford, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by DAL-57-L.Gifford at NE 22. 57-L.Gifford to NE 17 for 5 yards (25-B.Bolden).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.84 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 65, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 23, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP