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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to NE 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NE 42 for 23 yards (20-T.Pollard).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.99 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model