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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 12

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 2-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.30 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 12, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -1.00 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model