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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 27

Dallas Cowboys 17 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 2-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.80 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model