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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 33

Dallas Cowboys 20 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 2-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.97 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP