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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 53

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 66-C.McGovern reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott left end pushed ob at 50 for 3 yards (27-J.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.22 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -3.23 EP
KICK -2.19 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -1.13 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model