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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2021-10-17 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

CIN
59.3%
DET
40.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET defense: +0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Jared Goff (DET) -0.064 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.147 EPA/dropback
  • DET offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CIN 24
–
DET 22
Projected margin: CIN by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CIN

D'Ante Smith G Out Knee
Mike Thomas WR Questionable Ankle
Jackson Carman G Questionable Not Injury Related
Joe Mixon RB Questionable Ankle

DET

Trey Flowers LB Questionable Knee
T.J. Hockenson TE Questionable Knee
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Groin
Jamaal Williams RB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 34
–
DET 11

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:31 TD CIN (8:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 25-C.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – DET 0
  • Q2 00:04 FG CIN (:04) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 10 – DET 0
  • Q3 10:49 TD CIN (10:49) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 28-J.Mixon for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – DET 0
  • Q3 03:43 FG CIN (3:43) 2-E.McPherson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 20 – DET 0
  • Q4 12:43 TD CIN (12:43) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 87-C.Uzomah for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 26 – DET 0
  • Q4 08:40 FG DET (8:40) 4-A.Seibert 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. CIN 27 – DET 3
  • Q4 05:22 TD CIN (5:22) 75-I.Prince reported in as eligible. 8-B.Allen pass short left to 19-A.Tate for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 33 – DET 3
  • Q4 02:19 TD DET (2:19) (No Huddle) 32-D.Swift up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 34 – DET 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 16 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:55) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to CIN 39, Center-47-S.Daly. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 39 for no gain (35-G.Igwebuike).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:34) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to CIN 23, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-27-B.Price.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (15:00) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to DET 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-K.Raymond to DET 28 for 11 yards (25-C.Evans).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 64%

    (10:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left. Penalty on DET-58-P.Sewell, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:32) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to DET 12, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-K.Raymond to DET 25 for 13 yards (49-J.Bachie). PENALTY on DET-27-B.Price, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at DET 12.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:14) 30-J.Williams up the middle to DET 27 for 1 yard (24-V.Bell; 93-W.Ray).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:16) 3-J.Fox punts 64 yards to CIN 10, Center-47-S.Daly. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 25 for 15 yards (38-C.Moore; 57-A.Pittman).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:57) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to DET 14, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-K.Raymond ran ob at DET 28 for 14 yards (25-C.Evans).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 14 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:32) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to CIN 13, Center-47-S.Daly. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 24 for 11 yards (27-B.Price, 51-J.Woods).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 59%

    (10:49) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 28-J.Mixon for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:22) 3-J.Fox punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 90%

    (3:43) 2-E.McPherson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 13 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:38) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to CIN 5, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (8:40) 4-A.Seibert 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 68%

    (1:53) 32-T.Williams up the middle to DET 34 for 2 yards (99-J.Okwara).