Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 74

Detroit Lions 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(3:16) 3-J.Fox punts 64 yards to CIN 10, Center-47-S.Daly. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 25 for 15 yards (38-C.Moore; 57-A.Pittman).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.68 EP
67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model