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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 22

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 2-E.McPherson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model