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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 38

Detroit Lions 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left. Penalty on DET-58-P.Sewell, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.80 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model