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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 76

Detroit Lions 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to CIN 13, Center-47-S.Daly. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 24 for 11 yards (27-B.Price, 51-J.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.91 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model