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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to DET 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-K.Raymond to DET 28 for 11 yards (25-C.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.23 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 32, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model