Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 64

Detroit Lions 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

(9:22) 3-J.Fox punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model