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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 40

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 28-J.Mixon for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.38 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model