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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Monday 2021-10-18 · 20:15 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

BUF
66.7%
TEN
33.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.147 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.348 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) -0.011 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.166 EPA/dropback
  • TEN defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • TEN offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 28
–
TEN 22
Projected margin: BUF by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

BUF

No players on the report.

TEN

Kristian Fulton CB Out Hamstring
Monty Rice LB Out Groin
Jeremy McNichols RB Questionable Ankle
Khari Blasingame RB Questionable Shoulder
Chester Rogers WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 31
–
TEN 34

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:11 FG BUF (6:11) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. BUF 3 – TEN 0
  • Q2 11:40 FG BUF (11:40) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. BUF 6 – TEN 0
  • Q2 11:31 TD TEN (11:31) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – TEN 6
  • Q2 07:57 TD BUF (7:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 12 – TEN 7
  • Q2 05:09 FG TEN (5:09) 14-R.Bullock 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend. BUF 13 – TEN 10
  • Q2 04:28 TD TEN (4:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – TEN 16
  • Q2 00:47 TD BUF (:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 11-C.Beasley for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 19 – TEN 17
  • Q3 10:54 FG BUF (10:54) 2-T.Bass 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. BUF 23 – TEN 17
  • Q3 04:28 TD TEN (4:28) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – TEN 23
  • Q3 00:31 TD BUF (:31) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 89-T.Sweeney for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 29 – TEN 24
  • Q4 09:49 FG TEN (9:49) 14-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend. BUF 31 – TEN 27
  • Q4 03:10 TD TEN (3:10) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 31 – TEN 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:36) 8-J.Townsend punts 63 yards to BUF 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 21 for 6 yards (49-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (6:11) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:16) 8-J.Townsend punts 44 yards to BUF 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-I.McKenzie ran ob at BUF 45 for 14 yards (41-K.Blasingame). PENALTY on BUF-53-T.Dodson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 31. Penalty on BUF-9-A.Smith, Illegal Blindside Block, declined.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 18 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:08) 3-M.Haack punts 53 yards to TEN 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 36 for 2 yards. Pass back to 35-C.Jackson to BUF 42 for 22 yards (54-A.Klein). PENALTY on TEN-80-C.Rogers, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 34.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (11:40) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 86%

    (5:09) 14-R.Bullock 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 69%

    (10:54) 2-T.Bass 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 79%

    (6:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown to BUF 15 for 14 yards (21-J.Poyer) [55-J.Hughes].

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 91%

    (9:49) 14-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 17 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:09) 3-M.Haack punts 40 yards to TEN 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (:22) 17-J.Allen up the middle to TEN 3 for no gain (98-J.Simmons).