Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 8-J.Townsend punts 44 yards to BUF 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-I.McKenzie ran ob at BUF 45 for 14 yards (41-K.Blasingame). PENALTY on BUF-53-T.Dodson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 31. Penalty on BUF-9-A.Smith, Illegal Blindside Block, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.69 EP
59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model