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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 5

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.16 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP