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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 29

Tennessee Titans 17 – Buffalo Bills 23

What Actually Happened

(6:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown to BUF 15 for 14 yards (21-J.Poyer) [55-J.Hughes].

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.33 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model