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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 20

Tennessee Titans 24 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 14-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.94 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 20, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model