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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 25

Tennessee Titans 7 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 14-R.Bullock 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.79 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 35, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model