Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 87

Buffalo Bills 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 3-M.Haack punts 53 yards to TEN 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 36 for 2 yards. Pass back to 35-C.Jackson to BUF 42 for 22 yards (54-A.Klein). PENALTY on TEN-80-C.Rogers, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 34.

The Three Options

GO -3.28 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.09 EP
69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 87, worth -5.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model