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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 8-J.Townsend punts 63 yards to BUF 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 21 for 6 yards (49-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.95 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 35, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model