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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
Sunday 2021-10-03 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

IND
51.1%
MIA
48.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Jacoby Brissett (MIA) -0.178 vs Carson Wentz (IND) -0.083 EPA/dropback
  • IND defense: +0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

IND 22
–
MIA 21
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

IND

Quenton Nelson G Out Ankle
Kwity Paye DE Out Hamstring
Braden Smith T Out Foot
Khari Willis S Out Ankle
Rock Ya-Sin CB Out Ankle
Mark Glowinski G Questionable Knee
Jack Doyle TE Questionable Back
Jonathan Taylor RB Questionable Knee
Carson Wentz QB Questionable Ankles

MIA

Michael Deiter C Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 27
–
MIA 17

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:58 FG MIA (9:58) 7-J.Sanders 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. IND 0 – MIA 3
  • Q2 02:54 TD IND (2:54) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – MIA 3
  • Q3 08:32 TD IND (8:32) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – MIA 3
  • Q3 00:57 FG IND (:57) 3-R.Blankenship 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 17 – MIA 3
  • Q4 13:22 FG IND (13:22) 3-R.Blankenship 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 20 – MIA 3
  • Q4 10:46 TD MIA (10:46) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – MIA 9
  • Q4 06:20 TD IND (6:20) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 26 – MIA 10
  • Q4 04:31 TD MIA (4:31) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass short middle to 11-D.Parker for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. IND 27 – MIA 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to IND 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 21-N.Hines MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-44-B.Ferguson at IND 27.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 89%

    (9:58) 7-J.Sanders 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 18 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:09) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-J.Grant to MIA 13 for -1 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 18 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 41%

    (13:18) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to IND 1, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 16 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to MIA 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-J.Grant ran ob at 50 for 14 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 30%

    (8:08) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to IND 18, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:25) 63-D.Pinter reported in as eligible. 2-C.Wentz left guard to IND 29 for 2 yards (94-C.Wilkins).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 37 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:27) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to IND 12, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 21-N.Hines to IND 11 for -1 yards (22-E.Campbell, 44-B.Ferguson).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-J.Grant MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-16-A.Dulin at MIA 18.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 93%

    (:57) 3-R.Blankenship 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 83%

    (13:22) 3-R.Blankenship 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (10:46) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (4:31) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass short middle to 11-D.Parker for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.