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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 93

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to MIA 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-J.Grant ran ob at 50 for 14 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -3.57 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.02 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 93, worth -5.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 51, worth -2.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model