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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 46

Miami Dolphins 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.45 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model