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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 63-D.Pinter reported in as eligible. 2-C.Wentz left guard to IND 29 for 2 yards (94-C.Wilkins).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.87 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 31, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model