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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 1

Miami Dolphins 3 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(10:46) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 1, worth +0.82 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model