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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-J.Grant MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-16-A.Dulin at MIA 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.38 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 26, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP