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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to IND 1, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model