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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 3

Miami Dolphins 10 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(4:31) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass short middle to 11-D.Parker for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 3, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model