4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2021-10-03 · 13:00 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

CAR
52.2%
DAL
47.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.326 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CAR on 4 more days rest than DAL
  • DAL defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.204 vs Sam Darnold (CAR) +0.228 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CAR 28
–
DAL 27
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 55

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CAR

Christian McCaffrey RB Out Hamstring
Yetur Gross-Matos DE Doubtful Ankle
John Miller G Questionable Shoulder

DAL

Dorance Armstrong DE Out Ankle
Ty Nsekhe T Out Illness
Carlos Watkins DE Out Knee
Donovan Wilson S Out Groin
Randy Gregory DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 28
–
DAL 36

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:31 TD DAL (7:31) 21-E.Elliott left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 02:45 TD CAR (2:45) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – DAL 7
  • Q2 14:16 TD DAL (14:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 89-B.Jarwin for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – DAL 13
  • Q2 07:09 TD CAR (7:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – DAL 13
  • Q3 10:56 TD DAL (10:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – DAL 19
  • Q3 07:24 TD DAL (7:24) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – DAL 26
  • Q3 02:23 TD DAL (2:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 1-C.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – DAL 32
  • Q4 15:00 FG DAL (15:00) 2-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. CAR 14 – DAL 36
  • Q4 09:05 TD CAR (9:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 2-Dj.Moore for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 20 – DAL 36
  • Q4 04:36 TD CAR (4:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 2-Dj.Moore for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 27 – DAL 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:46) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to CAR 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:15) 3-J.Charlton punts 49 yards to DAL 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb. PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 35.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end ran ob at CAR 33 for 21 yards (21-J.Chinn).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 36%

    (4:27) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to CAR 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:48) 3-J.Charlton punts 43 yards to DAL 32, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 39%

    (:55) 5-B.Anger punts 36 yards to CAR 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 68%

    (12:54) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:18) 3-J.Charlton punts 44 yards to DAL 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 1-C.Wilson.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:50) 2-Dj.Moore left end ran ob at CAR 40 for 6 yards (18-D.Kazee).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 92%

    (15:00) 2-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (12:48) 32-R.Freeman right guard to CAR 36 for 2 yards (26-J.Lewis).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:58) 5-B.Anger punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 16-B.Zylstra pushed ob at DAL 13 for 55 yards (30-A.Brown).