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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 54

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end ran ob at CAR 33 for 21 yards (21-J.Chinn).

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.87 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model