Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 20

(9:18) 3-J.Charlton punts 44 yards to DAL 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 1-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 78, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model