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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 36

Carolina Panthers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -2.18 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model