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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 49

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to CAR 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.08 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP